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<p align=center style='text-align:center'><b><font size=5 color=black
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-weight:bold'>Municipal,
Legislative Election Results in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">El
Salvador</st1:country-region></st1:place> Add to Tension as Presidential Race
Heats Up<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p align=center style='text-align:center'><b><font size=4 color=black
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-weight:bold'>Important
victories for leftist FMLN party, combined with loss of <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City
w:st="on">San Salvador</st1:City></st1:place> and dramatic irregularities, set
stage for March 15 vote for president<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p align=center style='text-align:center'><b><i><font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold;
font-style:italic'>CISPES January 2009 Elections Analysis<o:p></o:p></span></font></i></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><font size=2 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;color:windowtext;font-style:italic'>Download the
recently released CISPES/Upsidedownworld/NACLA report: <a
href="http://www.cispes.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=511&Itemid=29">The
2009 El Salvador Elections: Between Crisis and Change</a><o:p></o:p></span></font></i></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><font size=2 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;color:windowtext;font-style:italic'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></i></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><font size=2 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;color:windowtext;font-style:italic'>And check out more
information about the January and March elections</span></font></i><i><font
size=2 color=navy><span style='font-size:11.0pt;color:navy;font-style:italic'>
at <a href="http://www.cispes.org/09electionsblog">www.cispes.org/09electionsblog</a><o:p></o:p></span></font></i></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>On January 18, voters in <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">El Salvador</st1:place></st1:country-region> went to the polls to
elect 262 mayors, one for every municipality in the country, and 84 deputies to
the national Legislative Assembly. At the end of a tense day of voting,
filled with legal disputes and allegations of irregularities and fraud, the
leftist FMLN (Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front) celebrated victory,
despite losing the capital city to the right-wing ARENA (Nationalist Republican
Alliance) party. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>The stage is now set for March 15, when Salvadorans
will elect a new president, with the choice between Mauricio Funes of the FMLN,
a former independent journalist, and ARENA’s Rodrigo Ávila, a former
private security mogul and director of the national police force
(PNC). <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>As preliminary results of municipal and legislative
races came in on January 18, the FMLN declared itself the strongest political
force in the country, having won the largest bloc of deputies in the
Legislative Assembly with 100,000 more votes nationally than ARENA. With
official results yet to be announced, the FMLN appears to have won 43% of the
national vote for deputies, making it the most popular party in <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">El Salvador</st1:country-region></st1:place>
by 5-6 percentage points over ARENA. Such an achievement puts the party on the
path to winning the presidency and continues the it’s steady increase in
legislative seats since 1994, when the FMLN first entered electoral politics
having converted itself from guerrilla force via the 1992 Peace Accords.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>When the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) announces
its final tally, the FMLN will likely increase its number of legislative
deputies by three, while ARENA has lost two seats. These results would
give the FMLN 35 seats in the Assembly to ARENA’s 32. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>On the other hand, ARENA claimed victory for its
mayoral candidate, Norman Quijano, in the capital city of <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City
w:st="on">San Salvador</st1:City></st1:place>, which had been governed as a
strategically symbolic stronghold of the FMLN for the last twelve years. Even
in defeat, FMLN incumbent Violeta Menjívar, received more votes than she had in
2006. FMLN leaders believe that Quijano’s victory was due in part to the
migration of thousands of voters into San Salvador, a claim backed up by the
fact that Menjívar had a significant lead in opinion polls in the days leading
up to the January 18 vote. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>Despite losing the race in <st1:City w:st="on">San
Salvador</st1:City>, the FMLN won mayors’ offices in most of the other
large cities in the metropolitan area, including Mejicanos, Apopa, and <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">San Marcos</st1:City></st1:place>. Overall, the
FMLN increased the number of municipalities it will govern by more than 50%
percent, to around 90 municipalities (some have yet to be decided), indicating
broad support for the leftist party across the country, in both rural and urban
areas. The FMLN also claimed victory in three of the next four largest cities
in the country: Soyapango, Santa Tecla, and <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City
w:st="on">Santa Ana</st1:City></st1:place>. The latter is an especially
significant victory, given that the incumbent mayor, Orlando Mena of the
Christian Democrat Party (PDC), had governed the city for nine years.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
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src="cid:image004.jpg@01C97D5D.ED01F9D0" align=left hspace=12 v:shapes="_x0000_s1030"><![endif]><font
size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman">The FMLN also won several smaller
municipalities that it had not governed in recent years, including La Union, <st1:place
w:st="on">Izalco</st1:place>, Perquin and Zacatecaluca. The wins in La Union
and Perquin signify an important growth in rural votes for the FMLN, an ongoing
goal of the party since its inception.<o:p></o:p></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>Perquin and <st1:place w:st="on">Izalco</st1:place>
are also symbolically important for the party. Perquin, which the FMLN
reclaimed after losing there to ARENA in 2006, has historically been an FMLN stronghold,
and was a focal point of resistance during <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">El Salvador</st1:country-region></st1:place>’s 1980-1992 civil
war. <st1:place w:st="on">Izalco</st1:place>, on the other hand, is the site of
an uprising that led to the infamous 1932 massacre of some 30,000 indigenous
peasants who were aligned with FMLN namesake Farabundo Martí. The FMLN will
govern <st1:place w:st="on">Izalco</st1:place> for the first time beginning May
1, when newly elected mayors take office.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>In the Legislative Assembly, <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">El Salvador</st1:country-region></st1:place>’s complicated
residual voting system will likely give disproportionate representation to the
right-wing National Conciliation Party (PCN) party. Following ARENA and the
FMLN, the PCN has retained its position as the third largest bloc in the
Assembly with 11 seats, while the center-right PDC will have 5 seats. The
PCN will have 13% of the seats in the Assembly despite receiving only 8.5% of
the legislative vote. The center-left CD (Democratic Change) will have just
one seat, while the FDR (Democratic Revolutionary Front), a center-left
split-off from the FMLN, failed to win a single seat, which should, according
to Salvadoran law, result in the dissolution of the party.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>Inaccuracies in voter rolls lead open
door for fraud <o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>While national and international observers’
Election Day reports indicate consistent irregularities across voting centers,
the pre-election context in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">El
Salvador</st1:country-region></st1:place> points to large scale fraud that
was set in motion long before that day ever came. The most glaring examples of
a skewed electoral system result from the actions of the Legislative Assembly
and the Supreme Electoral Tribunal surrounding census data and the voter
registry.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>In September of 2008, the Assembly issued the official
convocation of the 2009 election period ahead of schedule, days before data
from the 2007 census was officially released by the government. As a result,
the number of legislative seats apportioned to each of <st1:country-region
w:st="on">El Salvador</st1:country-region>’s 14 departments through the
2009 election is based on 1998 census data, which grossly underestimates the
current population of <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">San Salvador</st1:City></st1:place>
and other major cities, thus granting disproportional representation to the
more conservative rural areas, which have largely lost population through
emigration.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>In addition to the faulty configuration of deputies,
the voter registry is another outstanding deficiency in the electoral process.
Numerous reports of out-of-date voter rolls reveal that, across the country,
deceased, incarcerated and relocated persons remain registered to vote.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>In spite of constitutional and electoral regulations
to the contrary, not all of the political parties have had equal access to the
current registry of naturalized citizens, upon which voter rolls are based. By
controlling access to the citizen registry, the ARENA party prevents comparison
of this registry to the voter rolls, and the resolution of inconsistencies
between the two. The right-wing dominated TSE failed to attend to this problem
in advance of the 2009 elections, despite a prominent 2008 recommendation by
the Organization of American States that this obstruction to electoral
integrity be resolved.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>Issues surrounding the voter registry left the January
elections extremely vulnerable to fraud committed by parties bringing in people
from Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua to vote, as well as transporting voters
from other municipalities to areas with more hotly contested races. Incidences
of deceased and relocated persons on the voter registry allowed for others to
vote using those identities and counterfeit identification cards (DUIs - Unique
Identification Documents). Reports of this nature were rampant leading up to
and during Election Day. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>FMLN representatives reported that six buses of
foreigners were detained in the department of La Unión, and another 3 buses in
the department of Usulután. Meanwhile, the National Civilian Police reported a
bus of Nicaraguans in the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:PlaceType w:st="on">municipality</st1:PlaceType>
of <st1:PlaceName w:st="on">San Miguel</st1:PlaceName></st1:place>. Observers
also heard reports of large groups of people being housed in government buildings
in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">San Salvador</st1:City></st1:place>,
the most sought-after municipality for ARENA, the night before the
election. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>Despite these alarming incidents, there is hope that localized
efforts by party activists will be effective in defending the legitimacy of the
vote across <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">El Salvador</st1:country-region></st1:place>
in March. In San Isidro Cabańas, during the week before the municipal election,
members of the FMLN, PCN, PDC, and CD parties filed a complaint with the TSE
stating that the incumbent ARENA mayoral candidate was distributing voter cards
to Honduran citizens that were found in the voter registry. On the day of the
election, party representatives on the Municipal Electoral Committee (JEM),
overriding the opposition of ARENA’s representative, agreed to shut down
the vote at midday due to the influx of foreign voters. Thanks to the active
local response, the people of San Isidro Cabańas will have another opportunity
for a fair election in a special revote on January 25.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>Although the FMLN has pushed for solutions to voter
registry-related fraud – including public access to the citizen registry,
the use of ultraviolet lights at voting tables to verify DUIs, and
“residential voting,” in which citizens would vote at smaller
polling places in their own neighborhoods, thus decreasing the likelihood of
non-residents voting – these recommendations have either gone unaddressed
or been dismissed by the TSE. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>Faced with a March presidential election that will
again be based on inaccurate voter rolls, the FMLN is counting on grassroots
organizing and the appeal of its candidate Funes to transcend the defamatory,
fear-based campaign that ARENA, with the complicity of the mainstream press,
has been running for months.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>With Rodrigo Ávila trailing Mauricio Funes by 17
points in some recent polling, ARENA seems resigned to the fact that it cannot
win in the ‘first round’ presidential election on March 15. Its
strategy, instead, is to force a run-off election by preventing the FMLN from
winning the absolute majority (50% plus one vote) that it will need to gain the
presidency. In a second round run-off, only the two parties with the most votes
would compete, giving ARENA the advantage of attracting votes from supporters
of the smaller right-wing parties. Although the movement of voters from one
municipality to another don’t affect the results of a nation-wide
presidential election, the right-wing is expected to again bring foreigners to
the polls in order to prevent a majority FMLN vote in the first round.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>In order to prevent voter fraud and maintain
confidence in its campaign, the FMLN will rely on the power of its activists to
get out the vote and defend a fair election. In the months leading up to the
January elections, the FMLN’s limited resources, which consist primarily
of the energy of its activist base, were split between campaigning on a local
and departmental level, while also maintaining the momentum of the presidential
contest. Meanwhile, ARENA’s virtually unlimited monetary resources and
media exposure contributed to Quijano’s victory in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City
w:st="on">San Salvador</st1:City></st1:place>. With less than two months
remaining before the presidential elections, FMLN activists are now able to
focus all of their attention on one concerted effort towards a presidential
victory. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>Although ARENA and the right-wing of El Salvador have
a symbolic victory in San Salvador and more material resources in their pocket,
the widespread and numerous FMLN wins in the January 18 elections prove that,
on the national level, a plurality of voters continue to see the FMLN as a
hopeful alternative to 20 years of ARENA-led government. Party leadership is
counting on grassroots participation to curtail voter fraud and deliver a
presidential victory in March, while the party has promised not only to address
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">El Salvador</st1:country-region></st1:place>’s
economic and social disparities, but also to resolve concerns about the
electoral system, thus ensuring fairness and transparency in future elections.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-style:italic'>For ongoing reporting on <st1:country-region
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">El Salvador</st1:place></st1:country-region>’s
March 15 presidential election, visit <a
href="http://www.cispes.org/09electionsblog">www.cispes.org/09electionsblog</a>.
<o:p></o:p></span></font></i></p>
<p><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:
Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
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