January 2009 Elections Analysis: Results in El Salvador Add to Tension as Presidential Race Heats Up

[CISPES National Office]

Municipal, Legislative Election Results in El Salvador Add to Tension as
Presidential Race Heats Up

Important victories for leftist FMLN party, combined with loss of San
Salvador and dramatic irregularities, set stage for March 15 vote for
president

CISPES January 2009 Elections Analysis

Download the recently released CISPES/Upsidedownworld/NACLA report: The
<http://www.cispes.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=511&Itemid=
29>  2009 El Salvador Elections: Between Crisis and Change

 

And check out more information about the January and March elections at
www.cispes.org/09electionsblog



On January 18, voters in El Salvador went to the polls to elect 262 mayors,
one for every municipality in the country, and 84 deputies to the national
Legislative Assembly. At the end of a tense day of voting, filled with legal
disputes and allegations of irregularities and fraud, the leftist FMLN
(Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front) celebrated victory, despite
losing the capital city to the right-wing ARENA (Nationalist Republican
Alliance) party. 

 

The stage is now set for March 15, when Salvadorans will elect a new
president, with the choice between Mauricio Funes of the FMLN, a former
independent journalist, and ARENA’s Rodrigo Ávila, a former private security
mogul and director of the national police force (PNC).           

 

As preliminary results of municipal and legislative races came in on January
18, the FMLN declared itself the strongest political force in the country,
having won the largest bloc of deputies in the Legislative Assembly with
100,000 more votes nationally than ARENA. With official results yet to be
announced, the FMLN appears to have won 43% of the national vote for
deputies, making it the most popular party in El Salvador by 5-6 percentage
points over ARENA.  Such an achievement puts the party on the path to
winning the presidency and continues the it’s steady increase in legislative
seats since 1994, when the FMLN first entered electoral politics having
converted itself from guerrilla force via the 1992 Peace Accords.

 

When the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) announces its final tally, the
FMLN will likely increase its number of legislative deputies by three, while
ARENA has lost two seats. These results would give the FMLN 35 seats in the
Assembly to ARENA’s 32.  

 

On the other hand, ARENA claimed victory for its mayoral candidate, Norman
Quijano, in the capital city of San Salvador, which had been governed as a
strategically symbolic stronghold of the FMLN for the last twelve years.
Even in defeat, FMLN incumbent Violeta Menjívar, received more votes than
she had in 2006.  FMLN leaders believe that Quijano’s victory was due in
part to the migration of thousands of voters into San Salvador, a claim
backed up by the fact that Menjívar had a significant lead in opinion polls
in the days leading up to the January 18 vote.  

 

Despite losing the race in San Salvador, the FMLN won mayors’ offices in
most of the other large cities in the metropolitan area, including
Mejicanos, Apopa, and San Marcos.  Overall, the FMLN increased the number of
municipalities it will govern by more than 50% percent, to around 90
municipalities (some have yet to be decided), indicating broad support for
the leftist party across the country, in both rural and urban areas. The
FMLN also claimed victory in three of the next four largest cities in the
country: Soyapango, Santa Tecla, and Santa Ana.  The latter is an especially
significant victory, given that the incumbent mayor, Orlando Mena of the
Christian Democrat Party (PDC), had governed the city for nine years.

 

The FMLN also won several smaller municipalities that it had not governed in
recent years, including La Union, Izalco, Perquin and Zacatecaluca. The wins
in La Union and Perquin signify an important growth in rural votes for the
FMLN, an ongoing goal of the party since its inception.

Perquin and Izalco are also symbolically important for the party. Perquin,
which the FMLN reclaimed after losing there to ARENA in 2006, has
historically been an FMLN stronghold, and was a focal point of resistance
during El Salvador’s 1980-1992 civil war. Izalco, on the other hand, is the
site of an uprising that led to the infamous 1932 massacre of some 30,000
indigenous peasants who were aligned with FMLN namesake Farabundo Martí. The
FMLN will govern Izalco for the first time beginning May 1, when newly
elected mayors take office.

 

In the Legislative Assembly, El Salvador’s complicated residual voting
system will likely give disproportionate representation to the right-wing
National Conciliation Party (PCN) party.  Following ARENA and the FMLN, the
PCN has retained its position as the third largest bloc in the Assembly with
11 seats, while the center-right PDC will have 5 seats.  The PCN will have
13% of the seats in the Assembly despite receiving only 8.5% of the
legislative vote.  The center-left CD (Democratic Change) will have just one
seat, while the FDR (Democratic Revolutionary Front), a center-left
split-off from the FMLN, failed to win a single seat, which should,
according to Salvadoran law, result in the dissolution of the party.

 

Inaccuracies in voter rolls lead open door for fraud 

 

While national and international observers’ Election Day reports indicate
consistent irregularities across voting centers, the pre-election context in
El Salvador points to large scale fraud that was set in motion long before
that day ever came. The most glaring examples of a skewed electoral system
result from the actions of the Legislative Assembly and the Supreme
Electoral Tribunal surrounding census data and the voter registry.

 

In September of 2008, the Assembly issued the official convocation of the
2009 election period ahead of schedule, days before data from the 2007
census was officially released by the government. As a result, the number of
legislative seats apportioned to each of El Salvador’s 14 departments
through the 2009 election is based on 1998 census data, which grossly
underestimates the current population of San Salvador and other major
cities, thus granting disproportional representation to the more
conservative rural areas, which have largely lost population through
emigration.

 

In addition to the faulty configuration of deputies, the voter registry is
another outstanding deficiency in the electoral process. Numerous reports of
out-of-date voter rolls reveal that, across the country, deceased,
incarcerated and relocated persons remain registered to vote.

 

In spite of constitutional and electoral regulations to the contrary, not
all of the political parties have had equal access to the current registry
of naturalized citizens, upon which voter rolls are based. By controlling
access to the citizen registry, the ARENA party prevents comparison of this
registry to the voter rolls, and the resolution of inconsistencies between
the two. The right-wing dominated TSE failed to attend to this problem in
advance of the 2009 elections, despite a prominent 2008 recommendation by
the Organization of American States that this obstruction to electoral
integrity be resolved.



Issues surrounding the voter registry left the January elections extremely
vulnerable to fraud committed by parties bringing in people from Guatemala,
Honduras and Nicaragua to vote, as well as transporting voters from other
municipalities to areas with more hotly contested races. Incidences of
deceased and relocated persons on the voter registry allowed for others to
vote using those identities and counterfeit identification cards (DUIs -
Unique Identification Documents). Reports of this nature were rampant
leading up to and during Election Day.  

 

FMLN representatives reported that six buses of foreigners were detained in
the department of La Unión, and another 3 buses in the department of
Usulután. Meanwhile, the National Civilian Police reported a bus of
Nicaraguans in the municipality of San Miguel. Observers also heard reports
of large groups of people being housed in government buildings in San
Salvador, the most sought-after municipality for ARENA, the night before the
election.  

 

Despite these alarming incidents, there is hope that localized efforts by
party activists will be effective in defending the legitimacy of the vote
across El Salvador in March. In San Isidro Cabañas, during the week before
the municipal election, members of the FMLN, PCN, PDC, and CD parties filed
a complaint with the TSE stating that the incumbent ARENA mayoral candidate
was distributing voter cards to Honduran citizens that were found in the
voter registry. On the day of the election, party representatives on the
Municipal Electoral Committee (JEM), overriding the opposition of ARENA’s
representative, agreed to shut down the vote at midday due to the influx of
foreign voters. Thanks to the active local response, the people of San
Isidro Cabañas will have another opportunity for a fair election in a
special revote on January 25.

 

Although the FMLN has pushed for solutions to voter registry-related fraud –
including public access to the citizen registry, the use of ultraviolet
lights at voting tables to verify DUIs, and “residential voting,” in which
citizens would vote at smaller polling places in their own neighborhoods,
thus decreasing the likelihood of non-residents voting – these
recommendations have either gone unaddressed or been dismissed by the TSE.  

Faced with a March presidential election that will again be based on
inaccurate voter rolls, the FMLN is counting on grassroots organizing and
the appeal of its candidate Funes to transcend the defamatory, fear-based
campaign that ARENA, with the complicity of the mainstream press, has been
running for months.

 

With Rodrigo Ávila trailing Mauricio Funes by 17 points in some recent
polling, ARENA seems resigned to the fact that it cannot win in the ‘first
round’ presidential election on March 15. Its strategy, instead, is to force
a run-off election by preventing the FMLN from winning the absolute majority
(50% plus one vote) that it will need to gain the presidency. In a second
round run-off, only the two parties with the most votes would compete,
giving ARENA the advantage of attracting votes from supporters of the
smaller right-wing parties. Although the movement of voters from one
municipality to another don’t affect the results of a nation-wide
presidential election, the right-wing is expected to again bring foreigners
to the polls in order to prevent a majority FMLN vote in the first round.

 

In order to prevent voter fraud and maintain confidence in its campaign, the
FMLN will rely on the power of its activists to get out the vote and defend
a fair election. In the months leading up to the January elections, the
FMLN’s limited resources, which consist primarily of the energy of its
activist base, were split between campaigning on a local and departmental
level, while also maintaining the momentum of the presidential contest.
Meanwhile, ARENA’s virtually unlimited monetary resources and media exposure
contributed to Quijano’s victory in San Salvador. With less than two months
remaining before the presidential elections, FMLN activists are now able to
focus all of their attention on one concerted effort towards a presidential
victory.    

 

Although ARENA and the right-wing of El Salvador have a symbolic victory in
San Salvador and more material resources in their pocket, the widespread and
numerous FMLN wins in the January 18 elections prove that, on the national
level, a plurality of voters continue to see the FMLN as a hopeful
alternative to 20 years of ARENA-led government. Party leadership is
counting on grassroots participation to curtail voter fraud and deliver a
presidential victory in March, while the party has promised not only to
address El Salvador’s economic and social disparities, but also to resolve
concerns about the electoral system, thus ensuring fairness and transparency
in future elections.

 

For ongoing reporting on El Salvador’s March 15 presidential election, visit
www.cispes.org/09electionsblog. 

 

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